In 2010, the Chiefs did more than just “make some noise,” as The Fantasy Greek thought they would. Things came together and the Chiefs surprised us all with their Week 1 manhandling of the Chargers whereby they vastly improved on their 2009, 4-12 record, and finished 2010 at 10-6, 7-1 at home, 3-5 on the road. However, the Chiefs struggled against their division foes finishing with a 2-4 record. The Chiefs’ off-season moves were again, generally solid as they sought to help the one aspect of their game that struggled last season, the passing game.
Points Yards Pass Yards Rush Yards
Offense 22.9 349.7 185.5 164.2
(14) (12) (30) (1)
Defense 20.4 330.2 219.9 110.2
(11) (14) (17) (14)
*Top number is average per game in 2010.
** Bottom numbers in parenthesis is the team’s ranking among all 32 NFL teams in 2010.
Matt Cassel (3,116 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs, 33 rushes, 125 yards, 1 FMBL) didn’t do much to improve his passing yards in 2011, but those 27 TDs helped make Cassel a low-end fantasy starter, high-end fantasy back-up last season. Basically, Cassel did a good job of getting rid of the ball behind an offensive line that had its share of problems in pass protection. To help, the Chiefs drafted center Rodney Hudson and will likely make a few moves in free agency to help the offensive line. Cassel is armed with some very good weapons in Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and rookie Jonathan Baldwin. Cassel will be one of the first QBs to be drafted as a back-up for fantasy purposes in Round 10 or Round 11.
Speaking of weapons, wide-receiver Dwayne Bowe (72 recpts., 1,162 yards, 15 TDs) had a breakthrough season in 2010! While those 15 TDs might be difficult to replicate in 2011, expecting similar yardage and 7-8 TDs is not too much to ask. Bowe could be drafted as a No. 1 wide-out but may be available as a No. 2 in most fantasy drafts (a bargain!) in Rounds 3 or 4. After Bowe, the next best non-running back receiver for the Chiefs in 2010 was TE Tony Moeaki (47 recpts., 556 yards, 3 TDs). While Moeaki showed promise as a rookie, he was inconsistent and should be on waivers at the end of fantasy drafts. Dexter McCluster (21 recpts., 18 rushes, 280 APY, 1 TD) was a disappointment in his rookie year. While he should be on the fantasy waiver wire after most fantasy drafts, McCluster’s role could grow in both the running game as well as the passing game. McCluster is definitely a player to monitor. The Chiefs spent their first draft pick on Jonathan Baldwin. While it is always hard to say how a rookie wide-out will do, right now, expect Baldwin to be incorporated in the offense fairly quickly. Baldwin is worth a roster spot as a second back-up wide-out through a late round draft pick. After all this, Chris Chambers (22 recpts., 213 yards, 1 TD) appears to be an afterthought and may not even be on the roster to begin the season.
In 2010, Jamaal Charles (230 rushes, 45 recpts., 1,935 APY, 8 TDs, 2 FMBLs) was amazing! Charles averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Charles is likely one of the most productive running backs given his limited number of carries. While there is likely an argument to be made that he could very well be drafted in fantasy as the No. 1 RB, he will likely be drafted fourth. While Thomas Jones (245 rushes, 14 recpts., 1,1018 APY, 6 TDs, 1 FMBL) will still likely eat into Charles’ production, make no doubt about it that Charles is the Chiefs’ starter and Jones’ role could even decrease. With that, Jones is a decent hand-cuff for Charles worth a late round draft pick.
Defensively, the Chiefs DST continues to improve. Indeed, the Chiefs addressed the heart of the defense in this year’s draft, to help their run defense and to improve their pass rush. They could still use another line-backer. The Chiefs will likely be players in free agency as to this position. For fantasy purposes, the Chiefs DST is borderline draftable and certainly as a back-up defense in leagues with roster spots allowing for a second defense. Otherwise, the Chiefs DST will be on waivers and should be a match-up based play or bye-week replacement. Kicker Ryan Succop (20 FGs/42 XPs) was actually pretty good last season. If the offense gets humming, so should Succop’s stats. In the meantime, leave Succop on the waiver wire for draft purposes.
Strength of Schedule – By Position
QB RB WR TE DEF
25 11 32 4 19
2011 Schedule
Week 1 Bills
Week 2 at Lions
Week 3 at Chargers
Week 4 Vikings
Week 5 at Colts
Week 6 BYE
Week 7 at Raiders
Week 8 Chargers
Week 9 Dolphins
Week 10 Broncos
Week 11 at Patriots
Week 12 Steelers
Week 13 at Bears
Week 14 at Jets
Week 15 Packers
Week 16 Raiders
Week 17 at Broncos
Projected Draft Round
Player Round(s)
Matt Cassel (QB) 10-11
Jamaal Charles (RB) 1
Thomas Jones (RB) Handcuff-Undrafted
Dwayne Bowe (WR) 3-4
Jonathan Baldwin (WR) Late Round Flier-Undrafted
Dexter McCluster (KR-WR) Late Round Flier-Undrafted
Tony Moeaki (TE) Late Round Flier-Undrafted
Ryan Succop (K) Undrafted
Chiefs DST Undrafted
The Chiefs – The Bottom Line
Everything happening for the Chiefs continues to be positive. Continued improvement in the passing game is the key. This year, this team should contend for the division once again. Yet, the Chargers are still the team to be beat. A finish of 9-7 is doable.