Tebow-Time in NY? A Fantasy Football Take

When The Fantasy Greek learned of the impending trade of Tim Tebow to the New York Jets, there was a sense of oddness to the deal that seemed to be a bit overtaking.  Here was a young, somewhat promising quarterback being shipped off to a team with another young, somewhat promising quarterback.  In a way, one couldn’t help but think “Could Tim Tebow make the Jets a better team?”

By way of digression, when the rumors started that the Broncos were looking to trade Tim Tebow now that the Broncos had signed Peyton Manning, the immediate, and most natural fit without question for Tim Tebow seemed to be the Jaguars.  Put to the side that Tebow could return with the fan fare of a prodigal son. The Jaguars needed improved quarterback play.  An upgrade in play of any kind at the quarterback position, either through Blaine Gabbert or a free agent quarterback, would be a good thing for the Jaguars. The Jaguars have a solid running game.  The Jaguars have some decent, albeit not great receivers.  The Jaguars even had a decent defense last season, a defense that indeed did well certain weeks in fantasy football.  So, when it was learned the Broncos were going to trade Tebow, and it was learned the Jaguars were one of the suitors, it appeared somewhat obvious what the result would be.  So, with Tim Tebow going to the Jets, we can only speculate as to what could have been for the Jaguars.  At a minimum, it would have been an interesting camp battle between incumbent Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, and the recently acquired, by way of free agency, Chad Henne.  But again, we digress.

It’s believed, in part, Tim Tebow was acquired by the Jets because of an interest the team had in him when he was originally an NFL draft prospect.  It’s also believed, in part, that Mark Sanchez, who has seemingly fallen from grace in the Jets organization, but signed to a contract extension anyway (favorable to the Jets), could use the competition to become a better quarterback.  The Jets needed a back-up quarterback anyway, with only Greg McElroy the only other quarterback on the roster.  However, there are also likely game-related reasons why this made sense too.

In 2009 and 2010, the Jets were on the verge of a Super Bowl appearance, finishing those seasons 9-7 and 11-5, respectively, and having gone deep in the AFC playoffs.  By contrast, in 2011, the Jets finished 8-8.  For the 2012 season, the Jets hired Tony Sparano, former Dolphins head coach, as their offensive coordinator.  The Dolphins were well known for making the Wildcat play vogue again, and the Jets have made it openly clear that they would like to mix things up by using the Wildcat, or some other Wildcat-type play again, from time to time.  Besides, Head Coach Rex Ryan has made it well known that he wants to run a ground-pound offense featuring the running attack. 

At the end of the 2011 season, there were genuine concerns that since Mark Sanchez had not evolved into one of the more near elite quarterbacks in the league, Sanchez may not be the quarterback to lead the Jets back to the promised-land – a Super Bowl championship.  In fantasy football, no one could be said to be bragging about having Mark Sanchez on their rosters.  Indeed, Sanchez’s 2011 season was a roller coaster of a season where Sanchez had three games where he posted 300-plus yards passing, eight games where he posted under 200 yards passing, and five games where he posted 200 to 300 yards passing.  He finished the season out having tossed seven interceptions in the last three games, for a total of eighteen on the season (fifth most in the league), the most since his rookie year, when he tossed 20 interceptions.  Also, it didn’t help Sanchez’s statistics that he had eight lost fumbles which was more than the four fumbles he lost the previous two seasons combined.  This is not all Sanchez’s fault however, as Sanchez was sacked 39 times in 2011 compared to 26 times in 2009, and 27 times in 2010.  In 2011, Sanchez was the fifth most sacked quarterback in the NFL.

Still, Mark Sanchez is a better quarterback than he was when he first entered the league.

By comparison, Tim Tebow in 11 games in 2011, and 3 games in 2010, posted the following stats:

For fantasy football purposes, Tim Tebow made up for subpar passing by rushing the ball 122 times in 2011 for 660 yards and 6 TDs. 

Compared to an elite quarterback like Drew Brees, there is no comparison.  The difference between Sanchez finishing 15th in passing yards and Brees finishing 1st is a canyon:

Obviously, neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow is Drew Brees.  Nor will they be in an offense that wants to run the ball rather than pass it.  It’s actually a bit stunning that Sanchez has received all the heat he has from the Jets’ faithful.  If Sanchez could wipe away the fumbles, he would be a better quarterback and the Jets a much better team.

For fantasy football purposes, Mark Sanchez served as a decent, not great back-up quarterback, for bye-week purposes.  With Tim Tebow in the mix, all bets are off.  Besides, there are some very good quarterbacks, with upside, The Fantasy Greek feels would be better suited to be a QB2 in fantasy football 2012 right now.  (See our updated rankings.)  For fantasy football, Tim Tebow would likely be the better play if a starter (as he was in 2011), if only because he makes up for any deficiencies in passing the ball, by running the ball. 

In the end, there is a long shadow of uncertainty as to whether Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow will be fantasy football relevant in 2012.  Mark Sanchez is a risk because if he struggles, or if the Jets perceive that Tim Tebow would be the better quarterback to lead the team, then fantasy footballers just wasted a draft pick.  Besides, based on the numbers above, there seems to be a limit as to the kinds of statistics Sanchez can post.  This is magnified by the fact that 2011 saw three NFL quarterbacks pass for over 5,000 passing yards and another seven NFL quarterbacks throw for over 4,000 passing yards.  Right now, neither is really draftable in fantasy football except for those leagues whose teams have very large rosters.  And of the two, it seems Tim Tebow would have a larger upside because of his ability to run the ball.  The Jets offense seems like it would be better suited for Tebow.  We will know soon enough.