For fantasy football purposes, while several players will be highlighted below that could have good games this week for owners, some of these players may not be able to be used in fantasy due to injury, their game status being questionable. As this is the Sunday afternoon games, Sunday night game, and Monday night games, fantasy footballers may not want to start a player that could become inactive by these games’ kickoffs without that player’s back-up on the roster or without another player who has a 4:25 p.m. game, the Sunday Night game, or the Monday Night games to insert into your active line-up.
The goal in “Fantasy Football Choices” is to provide you, the fantasy football player, with enough information to make sensible and reasonable choices in setting your line-up this week by reviewing the weekly match-ups and identifying which players are “On the Gridiron,” a “Coach’s Decision,” or “On the Pine.” For many of you, the information provided simply provides affirmation to the decisions you have already made. If you like, skip the fluff, and find your player’s match-up for analysis. We also provide a down & dirtly listing of players listed in each category within the Quick Hits (coming out by Wednesday).If you are looking for a waiver wire pick-up, then look for those players still on your waiver wire, and you can read that analysis too. Also, Consider using The Fantasy Greek’s “Fantasy Points Allowed” tool in identifying favorable and unfavorable match-ups and in making your weekly choices for the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) {LINK} and for defenses/special teams and kickers {LINK}.
ON THE GRIDIRON: Identifies players you should play because of their match-up or because of their role on their team’s offense.
COACH’S DECISION: Identifies players who you normally would play but whose match-up this week is not very good; identifies players who you normally would not play but whose match-up this week is good; or identifies players who are injured that you, the fantasy coach, will need to make the call on whether or not to play.
ON THE PINE: Identifies players who you should likely avoid unless there is no one else on your roster or on the waiver wire that can help your team win.
4:05 p.m. EST
SAINTS (4-5) v. RAIDERS (3-6)
This is the kind of game that fantasy players love. This is a game that should turn into a shootout where some of the football players that get the fantasy start, are players that usually don’t get played in fantasy. This week, the Raiders should be no match for the Saints. But, the Raiders will give the Saints a great run for the victory. Saints win.
ON THE GRIDIRON: The offensive match-ups for both the Saints and Raiders are favorable, top-ten or better. For the Saints, QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, and TE Jimmy Graham are must starts.For the Raiders, both QB Carson Palmer and WR Denarius Moore should be on fantasy gridirons against a defense allowing the most fantasy points to their respective positions.
COACH’S DECISION: The Saints back-field is a mess right now because there is a chance that Darren Sproles returns to action. If Sproles returns to action, he is expected to be a full go. If so, this week’s waiver wire adds of Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram would lose much of their value. Of the two, Ivory seems to be the best bet to continue playing well in fantasy this week. Otherwise, if Sproles is ruled out, consider Ivory a low-end RB2 and Ingram a solid bye-week option/flex-play. The odd man out should be Pierre Thomas. Saints wide-receiver Lance Moore is a solid WR3 because of the favorable match-up. With Darren McFadden out, FB Marcel Reese will get the start against the league’s worst fantasy rush defense. In Week 10, Reece posted 104 all-purpose yards against a fairly tough, but not great Ravens rush defense In Week 11, Reece should do well enough to be a high-RB2, borderline RB1. As for Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring), there is a good chance he does not play. If that is the case, Rod Streater gets a bump in value and makes for a reasonable WR3 play given the favorable match-up. Tight-end Brandon Myers make for a low TE1 play given the favorable match-up as the Saints do not defend the position well either, allowing the thirteenth most fantasy points to the position.
ON THE PINE: As already mentioned, Darren McFadden has been ruled out as has Michael Goodson. No other Raiders or Saints player is worth consideration.
4:25 p.m. EST
CHARGERS (4-5) v. BRONCOS (6-3)
The Chargers have settled down since their Week 6 manhandling by the Broncos. And while the Chargers are right there in the race for the AFC West crown, the Broncos are the better team. Offensively, the Broncos score 3 touchdowns for every 2 scored by the Chargers. Defensively, the Broncos are known for pressuring the quarterback. Much like Week 6, the Broncos should win this game.
ON THE GRIDIRON: Chargers tight-end Antonio Gates has to be the start of the week against a Broncos team that allow the most fantasy points to tight-ends. Fantasy players who have stuck by Gates should be happy this week. For the Broncos, QB Peyton Manning, WR Demaryius Thomas, and WR Eric Decker are must starts against a team Manning torched for 309 yards passing, three touchdowns, on one interception. While RB Willis McGahee had a tougher go of it when these teams last played (59 yards), McGahee is still a solid RB2 start and could be good for a TD rush this time around. The Broncos DST is the hottest defense in the league right now and should do well against the Chargers who allow the eighth most fantasy points to opposing defenses/special teams.
COACH’S DECISION: Because The Fantasy Greek is expecting a high passing game, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers (241 yards, 2 TDs) can be on fantasy gridirons this week. Note, however, this is the same team Rivers tossed four interceptions against in Week 6. While RB Ryan Mathews didn’t have the greatest game against the Broncos, but not the worst either, he can be on gridirons as a RB2 while Ronnie Brown makes for a flex-play given his increased involvement in the passing game. The Broncos are now top-five against wide-receivers in fantasy which means WR Malcolm Floyd and WR Danario Alexander are candidates for the pine.
ON THE PINE: The only way RB Jackie Battle becomes fantasy relevant is if Ryan Mathews were ruled out of the game. Broncos’ tight-ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen are hit-or-miss. One day RB Ronnie Hillman will have a bigger role in the offense but it is unknown when that will be.
8:20 p.m. EST
RAVENS (7-2) v. STEELERS (6-3)
This has the making of an ugly, low scoring game. The Ravens have struggled on the road while the Steelers are missing their No. 1 quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, this week. Yet, the Steelers should be able to get their offense going through the ground game, and in part, the passing game. The Fantasy Greek feels the Steelers will win this game. Besides four players, most fantasy options in this game should be avoided unless you have no other choice.
ON THE GRIDIRON: Even against a top-five Steelers, fantasy rush defense, Ray Rice remains a must start. Despite Ben Roethlisberger missing Week 11, wide-receiver Mike Wallace should still be active against a Ravens pass defense ranked in the middle of all teams defending the position in fantasy.Look at it this way, Leftwich will have to pass the ball like he did the other night and Wallace is a solid option.
COACH’S DECISION: There are two reasons to avoid playing Ravens QB Joe Flacco. First, the Steelers allow the third least number of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Second,Flacco has been awful on the road. Flacco averages under 180 yards passing per game and under 1 touchdown per game away from home.Likewise, both wide-receiver Anquan Boldin and wide-receiver Torrey Smith make for poor plays against the No. 1 Steelers defense against wide-receivers. While the Steelers don’t defend the tight-end position as well, it is still a tough match-up for Dennis Pitta as the Steelers allow the twelfth least fantas points to the position. For the Steelers, it looks like RB Rashard Mendehall will get the start this week and be a full-go. The Ravens allow the eighth most fantasy points to the position, making Mendenhall a start. With that, reserve running backs Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer should be on fantasy pines.While Mike Wallace should be on fantasy gridirons, this is a good week to sit WR Emmanuel Sanders until we see how he will be involved in the offense. As both the Ravens and Steelers do a good job protecting the ball and their quarterbacks, the Ravens DST and Steelers DST should be avoided if possible.Steelers TE Heath Miller can be on fantasy gridirons if you need him this week against a middle of the road defense against the position.
ON THE PINE: This is no time to consider QB Byron Leftwich against a pretty good Ravens pass defense. As mentioned, Ben Roethlisberger is out, as is Antonio Brown.
Monday, November 19, 2012
BEARS (7-2) v. FORTY-NINERS (6-2-1)
These teams are about even in terms of points allowed. In terms of points scored, the Bears have an edge. In fact the Bears are more dominant in terms of their defense, especially in terms of points scored. The key for the Forty-Niners is to control the ball and not turn it over. The Forty-Niners could have a hard time with that. The key for the Bears is to throw for 200 yards passing and rush for 150 yards. If the Bears can do that, they can win. Many have called this a preview of the NFC championship game. That remains to be seen. In the meantime, this should be a great game. The Fantasy Greek sees a Bears win.
ON THE GRIDIRON: As last week’s games have shown, both the Forty-Niners and the Bears can be run on. So, do not hesitate to get Matt Forte and Frank Gore on the fantasy football gridirons. Likewise, the Forty-Niners pass defense can be beaten. While Brandon Marshall may not see the end zone, he still makes for a solid play. For the most part, there is nothing about the match-up, or the quarterback throwing him the ball, that should slow Marshall. Marshall can make the plays.While the Bears have generally been stingy defending the tight end position, the Bears haven’t shut it down either. Forty-Niners tight-end Vernon Davis can be on fantasy football gridirons this week unless you happen to have a tight-end with a much better match-up. Both the Bears DST and the 49ers DST should be on fantasy football gridirons because of their ability to generate scoring plays.
COACH’S DECISION: In the past two games, Forty-Niners wide-receiver Michael Crabtree has accumulated 142 yards receiving and 3 TDs. As the Bears are top-three defending the wide-receiver position in fantasy, this is a week to consider sitting Crabtree if you can. Otherwise, consider him no better than a WR3 start. Michael Bush should have an increased role in this game. Bush is a low end, flex-option in this game, at best.
ON THE PINE: Jay Cutler has bee ruled out, and could be out for multiple weeks. Jason Campbell is worth monitoring in this game. Campbell is a quarterback that “does more with less,” with stints with the Redskins and the Raiders. For those with Alshon Jeffrey, he looks close to returning. Alex Smith is questionable but still not worth starting against aBears defense allowing the least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. No other player is worth consideration at this time.