By John Bush. The Conference Championship Shootout Report: Defense Against the Position presents this weeks two games sorted into one of four categories based on the expected total game points. This is typically one of the last three TFG reports during any week of the fantasy football season. While fantasy football season leagues are over, many are still playing daily fantasy football and fantasy playoff leagues.
Also, it’s a great report for all you football aficionados who are paying close attention to the stats and numbers entering the third weekend of the playoffs. View our fantasy football Defense against the Position (DAPs) numbers below as an indexing to gauging your team’s match-up and your team’s positional match-ups against the defense they are playing.
The additional DAP data (also called fantasy points allowed) serves as a tool to highlight the positions that are favored in each game because that positional group faces a weaker defense. Use the data to estimate the scoring potential of your favorite team by position or the scoring potential of your daily fantasy football players in passing and receiving.
- Shootouts are games where both teams combine to score 50 or more total game points.
- Above Average Scoring are games where both teams combine to score between 46 to 49 total game points
- Below Average Scoring are games where both teams combine to score between 42 to 45 total game points.
- Low Scoring scoring are games where both teams combine to score less than 42 points.
This week, both games are expected to be shootouts so expect a high number of fantasy points scored in whatever type of league you are playing in.
Each table of the Shootout Report consists of two blocks in each of the four data tables covering each group of games.
- Block 1 of the data tables names the shootout potential from high to low total game points. It declares which team is the favorite and underdog.
- Block 2 is a table which provides the defense against the position (DAP) numbers (or fantasy points allowed) for each game and team. The DAP numbers should be used to evaluate which positional players on a team have a favorable match-up (green) and which positional players on a team have an unfavorable match-up (red) this weekend against the defense they are playing.
This week the two conference finals are predicted to be shootouts where both teams combine to score 50 or more points in the game. The Falcons-Packers game may even total more than 60 game points as it did when these teams played in late October.
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
When the Packers are on offense, they have a favorable match-up against a Falcons defense with an overall DAP of +1.1. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers faces a favorable DAP of +2.7 as do his wide receivers with a +1.2 DAP. Packers tight end Jared Cook, who had a great game last week, is due for another good game as he plays against a defense with a 1.6 DAP. If Jordy Nelson misses another game, this will only help. Look for Ty Montgomery to continue with his success against a rush defense boasting a 2.1 DAP. Everything points to a Packers fantasy football points feast.
The Falcons offense also faces an easy overall +1.2 DAP. The Packers defense against the position favors every position but running back. AP high scoring game is predicted with Matt Ryan passing for multiple scores to Julio Jones and the other wide receivers. Matt Ryan and his wide receivers have favorable match-ups of +2.5 DAP and +6.4 DAP.
The Falcons rushing attack has an unfavorable match-up of -2.5 DAP. The running back dynamic duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should mainly score in the passing attack. Tevin Coleman could have a great game if used as pass catching running back.
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
The Steelers-Patriots game is predicted to be high scoring too but not with as many points scored as the Falcons-Packers game.
Quarterback Tom Brady has an unfavorable match-up against a -1.9 DAP and could be limited compared to his average game. However, it’s important to note Brady still threw for over 200-plus yards and two touchdowns when these teams played in late October. The Patriots wide receivers also have a tough match-up against a -3.9 DAP. Julian Edelman hauled in nine receptions for 60 yards in the October game. But with Rob Gronkowski, who led the Patriots in receiving last time out (4 rec., 93 yards, 1 TD), done for the season, Edelman or tight end Martellus Bennett could compensate for the lost Gronkowski production. Bennett faces a favorable +0.6 DAP. Despite the numbers from the October game, this is still a tough Steelers secondary.
The best chances for multiple scores is from the Patriots running back position which has a favorable match-up of +2.4 DAP. LeGarrette Blount scored two touchdowns in the October game.
Ben Roethlisberger will likely need to air out the football numerous times to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to keep pace with the Patriots offense so the -1.9 DAP isn’t necessarily a disconcerting figure. Indeed, Roethlisberger as out for the October game. Back-up quarterback Landry Jones still managed to throw 281 yards for a score.
Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell has an unfavorable match-up with -3.7 but will likely touch the football 30-plus times for 100-plus yards. Wide receivr Antonio Brown will have to play a good game against a -1.3 DAP. He should though, having hauled in 7 receptions for 106 yards on 11 targets, all without Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers tight ends should be a major non-factor against a -1.6 DAP.