By John Bush. The Shootout Report by Game for the Divisional Round presents all the week’s games sorted into one of four categories based on the expected total game points. This is typically one of the last three TFG reports during any week of the fantasy football season. While fantasy football season leagues are over, many are still playing daily fantasy football and playoff leagues.
Also, it’s a great report for all you football aficionados who are paying close attention to the stats and numbers entering the second weekend of the playoffs. View our fantasy football Defense against the Position (DAPs) numbers below as an indexing to gauging your team’s match-up and your team’s positional match-ups against the defense they are playing.
The additional DAP data (also called fantasy points allowed) serves as a tool to highlight the positions that are favored in each game because that positional group faces a weaker defense. Use the data to estimate the scoring potential of your favorite team by position or the scoring potential of your daily fantasy football players in passing and receiving.
- Shootouts are games where both teams combine to score 50 or more total game points.
- Above Average Scoring are games where both teams combine to score between 46 to 49 total game points.
- Below Average Scoring are games where both teams combine to score between 42 to 45 total game points.
- Low Scoring scoring are games where both teams combine to score less than 42 points.
Each table of the Shootout Report consists of two blocks in each of the four data tables covering each group of games.
- Block 1 of the data tables names the shootout potential from high to low total game points. It declares which team is the favorite and underdog.
- Block 2 is a table which provides the defense against the position (DAP) numbers (or fantasy points allowed) for each game and team. The DAP numbers should be used to evaluate which positional players on a team have a favorable match-up (green) and which positional players on a team have an unfavorable match-up (red) this weekend against the defense they are playing.
This week there are two predicted shootout games. The players from these games should be viewed as optimal options in daily fantasy football or in other types of playoff leagues.
When the Cowboys are on offense, they are facing a overall favorable defensive match-up given the Packers overall DAP of +1.2. Dak Prescott has a nice game lined up as he is facing a DAP to the quarterback position of +2.5. The overwhelming issue in this game is that DAP to the wide receiver position is +6.4. This suggests the Cowboys could pass for three to four touchdowns.
It’s also an excellent situation for the Cowboys wide receivers of Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley, and Terrance Williams. Jason Witten faces a slightly more difficult but favorable DAP of +0.6. While Witten could slip in a score as well, his game usage through the season has been extremely unpredictable.
For the Cowboys, their main concern is Ezekiel Elliott is facing a -2.5 DAP. The Packers front seven is a good group when it comes to defending against opposing running backs despite who well Elliott played against the Packers in their last game. Expect lower production in rushing for Elliott than usual but possibly more success for him in the short passing game.
When the Packers are on offense they face a slightly tougher defense overall with a -0.6 DAP. Aaron Rodgers faces a slightly easy DAP of +0.3 but his wide receivers could be in for a tough game going against a DAP of -1.1.
The interesting fact is the Packers tight ends have a favorable match-up with a +2.9 DAP. Jared Cook could get a score in this game. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams (with Jordy Nelson possibly out) are going to have to play the games of their lives to give the Packers a chance.
The running backs are facing a stout defense of -3.4 DAP. Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael will have to step it up. It looks like that may not happen.
The Falcons offense faces a tough defense overall (-1.7 DAP) and unfavorable DAPs against all the positions. The good news is that the Falcons are playing at home and that tilts to their favor. In addition, the Falcons offense had much success the last time these two teams played back in October, scoring 24 points to the Seahawks 26 points. If the Falcons are game, it will likely be behind Matt Ryan passing for multiple scores to Julio Jones and the other wide receivers. The most favorable DAP is a -0.8 to the Falcons wide receivers and that is how the Falcons will win the game.
The running back dynamic duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will be mainly scoring in the passing attack. Tevin Coleman could have a great game.
The Seahawks face a favorable overall match-up against a defense with an overall +1.1 DAP. All positions have favorable match-ups. Russell Wilson should score in the passing or running game. Thomas Rawls could feast again with a match-up DAP of +2.1.
Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Paul Richardson have nice opportunities to contribute against a +1.2 DAP. Likewise, Jimmy Graham should contribute with a favorable +1.6 DAP.
Both teams are in line for multiple scores in order to keep up with each other.
Below Average Scoring
This is predicted to be a lower scoring, defensive dominated game. However, the Texans-Patriots game could produce more points than predicted for the Patriots. When these teams last played back in Week 3, the Patriots dominated, beating the Texans 27-0 without Tom Brady.
Nonetheless, by the numbers, Tom Brady faces a tough defense giving up -2.8 DAP which suggests he could struggle at times during the game. The group of Patriots wide receivers, including Julian Edelman, face a -3.6 DAP and the tight ends, including Martellus Bennett, face a -2.8 DAP. Compared to Tom Brady, these players could post lower numbers.
The best chances for multiple scores is from the running back position which plays against a -0.9 DAP. This sets up for a LeGarrette Blount TD scoring-type of game. Dion Lewis and James White could also contribute but their exact role is unknown.
When the Texans have the ball, they face a tough defense against all positions as well. Brock Osweiler faces a -1.0 DAP and his wide receivers, including DeAndre Hopkins, face -1.3 DAP. The problem for the Texans is the tight ends and running backs, who have been key to any success they have had on offense, face a tough -1.6 and -3.7, respectively.
Lamar Miller has to play his best seasonal game this week for the Texans to have any chance of upsetting the Patriots. Seems hard to imagine the Texans can win, especially on the road in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
The Chiefs are favored at home against the Steelers. Alex Smith and his wide receivers face a tougher match-up than average against -1.9 and -3.9 DAP, respectively. Jeremy Maclin and Tyreek Hill will have to step up their game against the Steelers to insure a victory.
On the other hand, the Chiefs running backs including Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West could have big games as they have a favorable +2.4 DAP match-up. Plus, Travis Kelce faces a +0.6 DAP and should score. Overall, the Steelers defensive weakness against the running back and tight end positions plays into the strengths of the Chiefs offense. This should insure a close victory for the Chiefs.
Ben Roethlisberger (- 0.1 DAP) will likely need to force the ball numerous times to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Brown and Bell each face a -0.2 and +1 DAP, respectively. The Steeler’s tight ends should not be a major factor against a -1.5 DAP. Expect the Steelers offense to run through the passing game.
This game is going to be close and the Steelers can win if their defense can slow or stop Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and the Chiefs’ running backs. That is key to this game.
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